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The effect of inflation on the UK’s favourite food and drinks
With the UK’s inflation rising at the highest rate for 40 years, what can we expect our favourite items to cost in the future?
Inflation is increasing at a rate that many of us have never seen before, and UK shoppers can’t help but notice the rising prices of items they hold dear. With the rate of inflation expected to remain high for some time, many are wondering just how much the prices of some of our most loved items will increase over the coming years.
To estimate this, we’ve used projected annual inflation rates for the next 20 years to predict how much some of the UK’s best-loved food and drinks will rise in price over the next two decades - from Freddo Frogs to fish and chips from the local chippy.
The cost of Brits’ favourite food and drinks in 20 years
Using a combination of the OECD’s inflation forecast, and the Bank of England’s target ongoing inflation rate, we’ve predicted how much some of our favourite meals and snacks could change in price over the next 20 years.
A Freddo Frog - 47p
Today, a Freddo Frog costs 30p, which some already feel is an extortionate price as many remember these chocolate bars being just 10p from its launch in the 1990s up until 2005. This nostalgic childhood icon is expected to cost an extra 17p by 2042, taking the price up to 47p.
A Greggs Sausage Roll - £1.94
Our research shows a sausage roll from one of the country’s favourite bakeries, Greggs, now costs £1.25. However, based on the predicted yearly inflation rates, Brits can expect to pay £1.94 for the pastry by 2042.
A Meal Deal - £6.05
Supermarket meal deals aren’t exempt from the rising cost of living either, with the average price predicted to increase by almost £2.15, from £3.90 to £6.05 by 2042.
Cornetto Ice Cream - £4.33
A Cornetto ice cream on a hot summer’s day is one of life’s greatest joys. Loved by kids and adults alike, it’ll cost £4.33 to get your hands on a 6 pack of this tasty treat by 2042 which is an extra £1.54 on top of today’s price of £2.79.
A Colin the Caterpillar Cake - £12.40
Kids’ birthday party staple, Colin the Caterpillar, currently costs £8.00 at M&S and could rise to £8.15 by the end of the year. However, party-planning parents can expect to fork out an extra £4.40 by 2042, taking the price to £12.40.
A Bottle of Heineken - £1.71
Today, a 330 ml. bottle of the UK’s third most popular beer brand, Heineken, currently costs just over a pound at £1.10, but by the end of this year, we could see the price rise to £1.12. Over the next 20 years, we can expect an extra 61p to be added on top of this, taking the price to £1.71 in 2042 assuming there are no changes to alcohol duty.
A Pub Roast Dinner - £22.46
By 2042, Brits can expect the price of a cherished pub roast dinner to rise by almost £8, taking the cost of this comfort meal from £14.49 to £22.46.
Milk Chocolate Digestives - £0.91
Today, a packet of milk chocolate digestives costs 59p, and by the end of the year, we expect this could increase by 1p. Over the next 20 years, we can expect the price of this biscuit to rise gradually to 91p in 2042.
A Box of Yorkshire Tea Teabags - £7.80
At the moment, the UK’s tea-drinkers can expect to pay an average of £5.03 for 160 Yorkshire Tea teabags. With the predicted rate of inflation, we expect the same product will rise to £5.12 by the end of the year. In 20 years, however, Yorkshire Tea teabags could increase in price to £7.80, increasing the cost of a cuppa by 2p.
A Bottle of Pimms - £33.72
Pimms, a favourite for British BBQ season and a staple summertime beverage, is another popular product that our research shows will become a little pricier in the years to come.
Currently, a 1-litre bottle of Pimms costs an average of £21.75 and by the end of this year, this price is expected to increase to £22.15. Looking ahead to 20 years from now, we can expect to be paying almost £12.00 extra by 2042, assuming there are no changes to alcohol duty.
How much more will seasonal goods cost?
Though seasonal goods like pumpkins and mince pies are unlikely to make their way into our shopping baskets weekly, we’re all keen to get our hands on them as soon as the weather starts to get colder. With this in mind, we were curious to find out how much more our favourite autumn indulgences and Christmas treats will cost us throughout the next decade.
Pumpkin Spiced Latte - £5.66
The ever-popular pumpkin spiced latte currently costs £3.65 from Starbucks, and could cost an extra 23p by 2023. By 2032, this sweet treat is expected to rise by £2.01 to £5.66.
A Box of Christmas Crackers - £27.02
By Christmas 2023, a box of Christmas crackers from Amazon to pull with friends and family will set you back £17.75, but in 20 years, this could jump up to £27.02.
Christmas Pudding - £15.24
In 2023 the traditional Christmas pudding costs £9.83, but over the next 20 years, this could rise by £5.41 to £15.24.
A Box of Mince Pies - £1.69
The price of a box of mince pies in 2023 is expected to rise to £1.16 from 2022’s price of £1.09. This could jump up by 60p to £1.69 over the next two decades.
The table below shows the current and predicted prices of 10 of the UK’s favourite food products:
Budgeting for treats during the rising cost of living
The rising cost of living can be a source of stress for many of us, especially if we have money worries already. However, there are steps that everyone can take to cut costs and get money smart as inflation rises.
Sharvan Selvam, Commercial Director from Aqua, commented: “The cost of living crisis and rising inflation rates are hitting Brits hard, and are understandably causing concern for a large portion of the country. These topics are often at the forefront of the news cycle, and unfortunately, this is unlikely to change for some time.
However, there are some simple steps you can take to adjust your spending in line with rising food and drink prices to feel more in control of your finances.
1. Create a personal budget
Put simply, a budget is a plan for your money and helps you keep track of it over time. Add up your monthly income and then categorise your expenses (such as rent, utilities, groceries, etc). Then, subtract your expenses from your income. If you discover that your spending adds up to more than your income, look for ways to cut back in categories such as entertainment and eating out first.
2. Shop smarter at the supermarket
Buying supermarket's own brands instead of the high-end brands can save you lots of money, and you’ll be surprised that they don’t taste too different.
3. Search for discounts
Many online retailers have discount codes available that could knock pounds off your bill. Sometimes all it takes is signing up for a newsletter to get a 10% discount code. A quick Google search can also reveal other lesser-known discount codes that can save you money every month.
4. Find out what you’re entitled to
Billions of pounds in government benefits and allowances go unclaimed every year. Use this simple online calculator to find out if you’re missing out.
5. Cancel unnecessary subscriptions
Cancelling subscriptions that you no longer use, or hardly use, is a great way of saving money, as every £10/£20 a month adds up and can save you a lot of money going forward.
For more money tips, visit our building credit hub, it’s filled with helpful resources to help you get started on your journey towards better credit.
Methodology:
For the Q4 prices, Aqua used the Q3 prices at 9.1% inflation rate to calculate the Q4 prices at a forecasted 11.1% inflation rate. For the 2023 prices, an inflation rate of 4.5% was used, and a 2% inflation rate was used for each year after as this is the Bank of England’s government-set target for YoY inflation.
Sources
Listed below are the sources for every data point used.
Price checked on 17/11/2022
Price checked on 17/11/2022
Price checked on 17/11/2022
Price checked on 17/11/2022
Price checked on 17/11/2022
Fish and chips from the chip shop (Haddock Average Price)
An average was taken from the following cities: Cardiff, Sheffield, Leeds, Newcastle, Belfast, Edinburgh, Manchester, and London.
A box of Yorkshire Tea teabags (160*500g)
Price checked on 17/11/2022
Packet of crumpets (pack of 9)
Price checked on 17/11/2022
Price checked on 17/11/2022
Price checked on 17/11/2022
Price checked on 17/11/2022
Price checked on 17/11/2022
Price checked on 17/11/2022
Price checked on 17/11/2022
Failure to make payments on time or to stay within your credit limit means that you will pay additional charges and may make obtaining credit in the future more expensive and difficult.
Contributors
Team Aqua
Aqua’s contributors are experts in their field, from a range of backgrounds including banking and lending.
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